Round 5
Thom wins by a quarter-point
Thom made it two weekly titles in a row, edging RW by only 0.25 percentage points of ROI. RW earned
substantially more cash, but Thom's smaller capital base and decisive Sunday move produced the more
efficient week.
- Winner
- Thom
- Winning ROI
- 27.12%
- Winning margin
- 0.25 pts
The early lead
RW controlled the first half
Thom ended Wednesday at +$1,010.61, helped by Liverpool Yes, West Ham No, and Reading No. RW went further,
reaching +$2,222.70 that night and +$3,146.30 by Friday after Manchester City beat Norwich 5-0.
Saturday changed the shape of the race. RW lost heavily on Brighton No, Brentford No, and Nottingham
Forest Yes, falling to +$1,660.96. Thom also absorbed three consecutive losses and entered Sunday at
+$591.92, leaving both players dependent on the final slate.
The biggest swing
Theodore's lead disappeared in one market
Theodore reached +$5,662.47 by Friday after large wins on Arsenal No, Aston Villa No, and Manchester City
Yes. He then held 10,000 No contracts on Brighton to beat Arsenal. Brighton's 3-0 win cost $5,990.80 and
erased almost the entire lead, leaving Theodore at -$140.69 for the week.
Strategic takeaway
Capital efficiency decided the closest finish yet
RW predicted more matches and earned the larger profit, but the weekly title is decided by return on
deployed capital. Thom concentrated his largest position on the market that mattered most and became the
first player to win consecutive rounds, surviving by a margin of just 0.25 percentage points.